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Alternative energy development strategies for China towards 2030

Linwei MA , Zheng LI , Feng FU , Weidou NI , Xiliang ZHANG ,

《能源前沿（英文）》 2009年第3卷第1期页码 2-10 doi: 10.1007/s11708-009-0014-0

摘要： The purposes, objectives and technology pathways for alternative energy development are discussed with the aim of reaching sustainable energy development in China. Special attention has been paid to alternative power and alternative vehicle fuels. Instead of limiting alternative energy to energy sources such as nuclear and renewable energy, the scope of discussion is extended to alternative technologies such as coal power with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), electric and hydrogen vehicles. In order to take account of the fact that China’s sustainable energy development involves many dimensions, a six-dimensional indicator set has been established and applied with the aim of comprehensively evaluating different technology pathways in a uniform way. The analysis reaches the following conclusions: (a) in the power sector, wind power, nuclear power and hydro power should be developed as much as possible, while R&D of solar power and coal power with CCS should be strengthened continuously for future deployment. (b) in the transportation sector, there is no foreseeable silver bullet to replace oil on a large scale within the time frame of 20 to 30 years. To ease the severe energy security situation, expedient choices like coal derived fuels could be developed. However, its scale should be optimized in accordance to the trade-off of energy security benefits, production costs and environmental costs. Desirable alternative fuels (or technologies) like 2nd generation biofuels and electrical vehicles should be the subject of intensive R&D with the objective to be cost effective as early as possible.

关键词： alternative energy China energy technology pathway six-dimensional evaluation

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Modeling China’s energy dilemma: conflicts among energy saving, energy security, and CO 2 mitigation

Feng FU, Zheng LI, Linwei MA,

《能源前沿（英文）》 2010年第4卷第3期页码 295-300 doi: 10.1007/s11708-010-0104-z

摘要： This study analyzes China’s future energy scenarios stretching until 2050 under different policy portfolios of energy security (e.g., oil import dependency) and CO emissions control. Four scenarios, namely, ① business as usual, ② strong oil import dependency (OID) control, ③ strong CO emissions control, and ④ twofold emphasis on OID and CO emissions control, are designed. The results reveal the existence of conflicts among China’s multiple objectives, particularly energy saving, energy security, and CO mitigation. Based on the analysis, an improvement in China’s efficiency in fossil energy conversion and the promotion of the utilization of non-fossil energy such as nuclear, wind, and hydro energy are recommended. The over-development of coal-derived fuels should also be avoided because of incremental coal consumption and CO emissions. Furthermore, research on and development of carbon capture and storage technologies should be promoted, while the energy efficiency loss caused by integrating these technologies into energy systems should be reduced in view of the high possibility of stricter standards for CO emissions in the future.

关键词： Energy dilemma energy saving energy security CO2 mitigation

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Dynamic mechanism for the decline of China’s energy intensity during the 11th FYP (Five-Year Plan)

Minghui LI

《能源前沿（英文）》 2011年第5卷第3期页码 237-249 doi: 10.1007/s11708-010-0130-x

摘要： From 2006 to 2009, the aggregate energy intensity of China fell by 14.38%, which means that China has made substantial progress towards its goal of achieving approximately a 20% reduction in energy intensity during the period of the 11th FYP (Five-Year Plan). This paper describes some new properties of the mechanism for the decrease in China’s energy intensity since the beginning of the 11th FYP. First, compared with the period of the 10th FYP, technical, structural, and residential energy-savings have been improved to a certain extent. Secondly, unlike the dynamic mechanism before 2000, technical energy savings have been the main driver of momentum since the beginning of the 11th FYP. Next, although structural energy savings are not the main factor, they are still a key factor for the decrease in energy intensity. Finally, residential energy savings are still a stable driver of momentum for the decline in China’s energy intensity.

关键词： energy intensity structural energy savings technical energy savings

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Comparison and analysis of energy consumption of energy-efficient office buildings in different climateregions in China: case studies

Ke ZHANG, Neng ZHU

《能源前沿（英文）》 2013年第7卷第3期页码 399-405 doi: 10.1007/s11708-013-0260-z

摘要： The purpose of this paper is to analyze the energy consumption (EC) and find out the determining factors of energy-efficient office building cases according to specific case studies in typical cities of different climate zones in China. The investigated building cases were located in four cities (Beijing, Ningbo, Nanjing and Shenzhen) of three architecture thermotechnical design zones (cold zone, hot summer and cold winter zone, hot summer and warm winter zone). The analysis indicates that the energy consumption index (ECI) of these four cases ranges from 41.06 to 74.23 kW·h/(m ·a). Besides, the outdoor climate can change the EC of air conditioning/heating systems, and further determine the monthly volatility of the total EC of the whole building.

关键词： energy-efficient building breakdown energy consumption (EC) energy consumption index (ECI) different climate zone

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中国能源困境与转型

石元春

《中国工程科学》 2009年第11卷第11期页码 4-12

摘要：

中国石油和天然气资源贫乏，进口依存度超过50 %，煤炭的储产比也降到了50以下。中国能源消费结构中煤炭占到七成，CO₂排放超过美国。能源转型是当今世界，也是中国发展的大趋势。能源转型的方向是清洁能源，发展清洁能源的重点是可再生能源。中国清洁能源资源具有替代现能源消费总量七成以上的潜力；可再生能源中的小水电、风能和生物质能的可经济利用资源量分别是0.63亿吨，1.23亿吨和10.47亿吨（标煤）。中国生物质原料资源最丰富，而且可以立竿见影地增加农民收入，促进农村经济发展，是发展可再生能源和能源转型的战略重点。

关键词：中国能源困境转型

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我国建筑节能战略研究

江亿

《中国工程科学》 2011年第13卷第6期页码 30-38

摘要：

给出了我国建筑运行能耗现状，并按照北方城镇建筑采暖、长江流域住宅采暖、住宅用能、非住宅建筑用能以及农村民用建筑用能的分类方法，分别分析了各类建筑能耗的特点、问题和节能的主要途径，同时对比了发达国家同类建筑用能与我国的差别。在基于数据和实际现象的分析的基础上，提出我国建筑能耗显著低于发达国家的主要原因是由于不同的生活方式和建筑使用模式所致，而维持目前这种相对节约的建筑使用方式与生活模式是实现我国建筑节能目标的基础。不同的生活方式和建筑使用方式需要不同的技术措施去实现节能，因此我国一定要采用与发达国家不同的技术途径来实现建筑节能目标。

关键词：建筑用能中国能源政策生活方式和能耗

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Literature review on renewable energy development and China’s roadmap

Dequn ZHOU, Hao DING, Qunwei WANG, Bin SU

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第2期页码 212-222 doi: 10.1007/s42524-020-0146-9

摘要： The low carbon energy transition has attracted worldwide attention to mitigate climate change. Renewable energy (RE) is the key to this transition, with significant developments to date, especially in China. This study systematically reviews the literature on RE development to identify a general context from many studies. The goal is to clarify key questions related to RE development from the current academic community. We first identify the forces driving RE development. Thereafter, we analyze methods for modeling RE developments considering the systematic and multiple complexity characteristics of RE. The study concludes with insights into the target selection and RE development roadmap in China.

关键词： renewable energy energy transition technology innovation technology diffusion development preference energy system modeling

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Regional characteristics of industrial energy efficiency in China: application of stochastic frontier

Tao HUANG,Akio ONISHI,Feng SHI,Masafumi MORISUGI,Mjo Lwin CHERRY

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2015年第9卷第3期页码 506-521 doi: 10.1007/s11783-014-0656-y

摘要： This paper analyzed regional industrial energy efficiency in China with Total-Factor Energy Efficiency (TFEE). The East region has the best energy efficiency and the Central and the West regions stand as the second and the third respectively. However, it is found that industrial energy efficiency of all regions increased from 1998 to 2006. This result is consistent with level of economic development of every region. The industries of all provinces in China are not yet at the frontier efficiency position, therefore, to the frontier as target, their technology levels and production processes should be adjusted accordingly. Compared with the conventional energy efficiency, the inverse of energy intensity, which is defined as the ratio of actual output to energy input, is regarded as Single-Factor Energy Efficiency (SFEE) index. Although TFEE ranks are not changed for each region, they are different for each province. The comparative result also shows that the substitution among inputs (labor, capital stock, and energy) to produce the output is significant. The SFEE scores could be over-estimated if energy is taken as the single input in the production. Finally, we identified determining factors affecting industrial energy efficiency using Tobit model. The results indicate that an increase of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the percentage of output value of industry invested by Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and abroad, energy price and investment of scientific and technological activities for industry could be possible contributors and drivers to the industrial energy efficiency. However, increasing of heavy industry will lead to worse industrial energy efficiency.

关键词： industrial energy efficiency stochastic frontier analysis total-factor energy efficiency single factor energy efficiency

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Renewable power for China: Past, present, and future

Eric MARTINOT

《能源前沿（英文）》 2010年第4卷第3期页码 287-294 doi: 10.1007/s11708-010-0120-z

摘要： This paper briefly examines the history, status, policy situation, development issues, and prospects for key renewable power technologies in China. The country has become a global leader in wind turbine and solar photovoltaic (PV) production, and leads the world in total power capacity from renewable energy. Policy frameworks have matured and evolved since the landmark 2005 Renewable Energy Law, updated in 2009. China’s 2020 renewable energy target is similar to that of the EU. However, China continues to face many challenges in technology development, grid-integration, and policy frameworks. These include training, research and development, wind turbine operating experience and performance, transmission constraints, grid interconnection time lags, resource assessments, power grid integration on large scales, and continued policy development and adjustment. Wind and solar PV targets for 2020 will likely be satisfied early, although domestic demand for solar PV remains weak and the pathways toward incorporating distributed and building-integrated solar PV are uncertain. Prospects for biomass power are limited by resource constraints. Other technologies such as concentrating solar thermal power, ocean energy, and electricity storage require greater attention.

关键词： renewable energy wind power solar power sustainable energy policy green industry

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Energy transition toward carbon-neutrality in China: Pathways, implications and uncertainties

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2023年第10卷第2期页码 358-372 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0202-8

摘要： Achieving carbon neutrality in China before 2060 requires a radical energy transition. To identify the possible transition pathways of China’s energy system, this study presents a scenario-based assessment using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. China could peak the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions before 2030 with current policies, while carbon neutrality entails a reduction of 7.8 Gt CO₂ in emissions in 2060 and requires an energy system overhaul. The assessment of the relationship between the energy transition and energy return on investment (EROI) reveals that energy transition may decrease the EROI, which would trigger increased energy investment, energy demand, and emissions. Uncertainty analysis further shows that the slow renewable energy integration policies and carbon capture and storage (CCS) penetration pace could hinder the emission mitigation, and the possible fossil fuel shortage calls for a much rapid proliferation of wind and solar power. Results suggest a continuation of the current preferential policies for renewables and further research and development on deployment of CCS. The results also indicate the need for backup capacities to enhance the energy security during the transition.

关键词： carbon neutrality energy transition uncertainty EROI LEAP

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Toward energy finance market transition: Does China’s oil futures shake up global spots market?

《工程管理前沿（英文）》页码 409-424 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0207-3

摘要： China is breaking through the petrodollar system, establishing RMB-dominating crude oil futures market. The country is achieving a milestone in its transition to energy finance market internationalization. This study explores the price leadership of China’s crude oil futures and identifies its price co-movement to uncover whether it truly shakes up the global oil spots market. First, we find that for oil spots under different gravities, China’s oil futures is only a net price information receiver from light-, medium-, and heavy-gravity oil spots, but it has a relatively stronger price co-movement with these three spots. Second, for oil spots under different sulfur contents, China’s oil futures still has weak price leadership in sweet, neutral, and sour oil spots, but it has strong co-movement with them. Third, for oil spots under different geographical origins, China’s oil futures shows price leadership in East Asian and Australian oil spots at the medium- and long-run time scales and strong price co-movement with East Asian, Middle Eastern, Latin American and Australian oil spots. China’s oil futures may not have good price leadership in global spots market, but it features favorable price co-movement.

关键词： China’s oil futures price information spillover price co-movement BK spillover index BDECO model

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Energy rebound effect in China’s manufacturing sector: Fresh evidence from firm-level data

《工程管理前沿（英文）》页码 439-451 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0210-8

摘要： The rebound effect refers to the phenomenon that individuals tend to consume more energy in the face of energy efficiency improvement, which reduces the expected energy-saving effect. Previous empirical studies on the rebound effect of regions and sectors do not provide microscopic evidence. To fill this gap, we use China’s firm-level data to estimate the rebound effect in China’s manufacturing subsectors, providing a detailed picture of China’s rebound effect across different sectors and different regions in 2001–2008. Results show that a partial rebound effect robustly appears in all industries, and the disparity between sectors is quite broad, ranging from 43.2% to 96.8%. As for the dynamic rebound effect of subsectors, most subsectors present an upward trend, whereas few subsectors show a clear downward trend. As a whole, the declined trend of the rebound effect is driven by the descent of minority sectors with high energy consumption and high energy-saving potential. In addition, we find that the disparity of the rebound effect across sectors is more significant than that across regions.

关键词： energy rebound effect energy efficiency manufacturing sector firm-level data China

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Strategic analysis of China’s geothermal energy industry

Hao GONG, Baicun WANG, Haijun LIANG, Zuoxian LUO, Yaofeng CAO

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第3期页码 390-401 doi: 10.1007/s42524-020-0106-4

摘要： China is an early user of geothermal energy, and its direct use ranks first in the world. Recent national strategies and policies have enabled China’s geothermal energy industry to enter a new era with important development opportunities. This paper investigates the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) to China’s geothermal energy industry from political, economic, social, and technological (PEST) perspectives. SWOT–PEST analysis indicates that the resources, market, and technological foundation exist for the large-scale development of China’s geothermal energy industry. However, it experiences constraints, such as unclear resource distributions, incomplete development of government regulations, incomplete implementation of national policies, unclear authority between governmental administrative systems, and lack of uniform technical standards and codes. Therefore, future development strategies have been proposed to provide technical support and policy tools for geothermal energy development. The recommendations to ensure its healthy and sustainable development include improving resource exploration, rationalizing administration systems, enhancing policy guidance and financial support, and cultivating geothermal talent.

关键词： geothermal energy strategic analysis SWOT–PEST policy administration

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China’s hydropower energy system toward carbon neutrality

《工程管理前沿（英文）》页码 677-682 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0196-2

摘要： Wind and solar powers will gradually become dominant energies toward carbon neutrality. Large-scale renewable energies, with strong stochasticity, high volatility, and unadjustable features, have great impacts on the safe operation of power system. Thus, an advanced hydropower energy system serving multiple energies is required to respond to volatility, with expanding role from a “stable energy supplier” to a “flexible efficiency regulator”. Future research and application can be considered from three aspects: 1) system expansion (e.g., the construction of large-scale hydropower/renewable energy bases in China, the construction of transnational hydropower energy internet, and the functional transformation of traditional hydropower reservoirs and generating units); 2) efficiency promotion (e.g., advanced intelligent forecasting, multi-objective operation, and risk management methods); and 3) supporting measures (e.g., market reform, benefit compensation and policy mechanism, technical standards, and laws and regulations).

关键词： hydropower system carbon neutrality artificial intelligence

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我国能源形势及发展对策

吴贵辉

《中国工程科学》 2011年第13卷第4期页码 4-8

摘要：

总结了近年来我国能源发展取得的成绩，研究分析了我国能源发展面临的形势和挑战，提出了当前和今后一个时期能源工作的主要任务。特别强调保证能源安全供应是能源战线的一项首要任务、基本任务和长期任务，同时要大力节约能源，调整优化能源结构，加快能源科技自主创新，扩大能源国际合作，推动能源科学发展，为经济社会健康、持续、协调发展提供保障。

关键词：能源能源现状能源问题能源任务